Homeownership Across Immigrant Groups and Generations in Sweden: Assimilation or Segmentation?
Mary Abed Al Ahad, Gunnar Andersson and Hill Kulu
In this study, we investigate entry into homeownership across immigrant groups and generations using large administrative individual-level longitudinal data from Sweden. We differentiate between immigrants arriving as adults (1G) and children (1.5G) and between descendants of immigrants with two (2G) and one (2.5G) foreign-born parent(s). We consider immigrants from both high and low- to middle-income countries. We include all immigrants who arrived in Sweden during 1997-2016 and Swedish-born individuals who became 18 between 1997 and 2016. Results were obtained using survival analysis.
We found that immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa have the lowest propensity to move into homeownership, whereas immigrants from Nordic countries, Western Europe and North America have the highest. A very large proportion of immigrants, especially those from Nordic and Western Europe moved to first-time homeownership already in their first year in Sweden. In general, we observe a clear gradient across immigrant generations: the 2.5G has homeownership levels closer to native Swedes than the other generations. However, the 2G, especially from low-income countries show slightly lower entry levels into homeownership than the 1.5G. Overall, our results support gradual housing assimilation and integration across migrant generations, but also highlights the special circumstances during migrants’ first year in Sweden as well as show the importance of financial resources, the reason for immigration and the socio-cultural background for housing careers differences.
The working paper can be found here.
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The housing integration of asylum seekers and refugees in Germany
Chia Liu and Hill Kulu
Refugee migrants has become a significant demographic group in Germany in the recent years, but little is known regarding their integration into the housing market following their initial arrival. This study seeks to address this gap by examining the residential mobility and homeownership of refugees and other immigrant groups who entered Germany through various legal pathways. Leveraging data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we delve into the housing trajectories of individuals aged 20 to 49 between 2000 and 2021, considering factors such as time-varying partnership and work statuses. Our primary focus centers on refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq, comparing their experiences with EU immigrants, ethnic German immigrants, and other non-EU immigrants. Through the application of discrete-time event history models, we aim to illuminate the dynamics of residential mobility and its implications for the housing career of refugees in Germany. This research offers valuable insights into how the legal pathway of entry into the country can influence the intentions of immigrants to establish long-term roots and make significant investments, such as purchasing a home, while also shedding light on the heightened residential mobility and social exclusion risks faced by refugees.
The working paper can be found here.
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Origin, generation, and context: Childbearing and employment changes among female immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom, France, and Germany
Júlia Mikolai, Hill Kulu, Isaure Delaporte, and Chia Liu
In this study, we investigate the link between childbearing and employment changes of female immigrants and their descendants in three European countries: the UK, France, and Germany. Although childbearing significantly influences female labour force participation, the interrelationship between fertility and employment changes among migrant populations is poorly understood. We use Poisson regression models to study employment entry and exit by migration background and parity. We show that mothers are less likely to enter and more likely to exit employment than childless women among native women, immigrants, and their descendants. The largest differences in employment entry and exit are observed between migrant groups and generations, and between countries. European and Western immigrants are more likely to (re-)enter and less likely to exit employment than those from non European countries. The descendants of immigrants have higher employment levels than immigrants and the differences compared to natives are smaller, but they persist, particularly among those of non-European descent. We also observe some differences across countries: mothers are the most likely to exit employment in Germany and the least likely in France. Our study highlights the importance of work-family reconciliation and immigration policies for reducing labour market disadvantage among mothers overall, and particularly among immigrants and their descendants.
The working paper can be found here.
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Residential Relocations and Housing Changes Among Immigrants and Their Descendants: An Analysis of Register Data from France
Isaure Delaporte, Ariane Pailhé, and Hill Kulu
The objective of this paper is twofold: first, to investigate residential mobility and housing changes among immigrants, their descendants, and the native population, and second, to examine the association between family/employment changes and residential mobility among immigrants, their descendants, and native-born individuals. We apply discrete-time event history analysis to rich French administrative panel data covering the period 2011-2019. The results show distinct patterns of residential moves among migrant groups and generations. Immigrants from North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa are less likely to move to homeownership and more likely to move to social renting compared to French natives. By contrast, immigrants from South East Asia, Turkey, and Europe have a similar likelihood of moving to homeownership than French natives. We find little changes in the probability of moving to homeownership across migrant generations. The descendants of immigrants from North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa are the least likely to move to homeownership and most likely to move to social renting. This suggests that either structural barriers or cultural norms shape the mobility patterns of immigrants and their descendants in the same way. Finally, we do not find any differences in the association between family/employment changes and residential mobility across migrants, their descendants, and the natives, suggesting that important life events play a similar role on residential mobility across all population groups.
The working paper can be found here.
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Residential Mobility and Housing Tenure Changes Among Immigrants and Their Descendants: A Cross-National Analysis of Five European Countries
Isaure Delaporte, Hill Kulu, Júlia Mikolai, Chia Liu, Mary Abed Al Ahad, Julie Lacroix, Gunnar Andersson, and Ariane Pailhé
Understanding the housing experiences and residential mobility of migrant populations is crucial to facilitate their integration into the host societies. Yet, little is known about their experiences across generations, origin groups, and country contexts. This paper aims to address these gaps by investigating residential mobility and housing changes among immigrants, their descendants, and natives in five countries (the UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, and Sweden) with different housing markets and migrant populations. Using longitudinal data and applying Poisson regression models on aggregated occurrence-exposure data from 2010-2019, we first compare the risk of a residential move across migrant generations, origins groups, and host countries. Second, we estimate competing risks models to study the propensity to move to different housing tenure types (i.e., homeownership, private renting, and social renting). The results show distinct patterns of residential moves among migrant generations and origin groups. First, immigrants’ levels of residential mobility vary across origin groups and country contexts: in the UK and Switzerland, migrant groups have higher residential mobility rates than natives, whereas in France, Germany, and Sweden, most immigrant groups have a similar risk of moving as the natives. Second, in all countries, immigrants, especially from non-European countries, are less likely to be homeowners and more likely to be social or private renters. Some of the differences in mobility and homeownership rates decline across migrant generations, however we still find lower levels of homeownership and higher levels of social renting among some descendant groups. This study sheds light on persistent differences in residential mobility and housing patterns among immigrants, their descendants, and natives in Europe and contributes to provide a better understanding of the role of the country context in perpetuating housing inequalities.
The working paper can be found here.
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On the timing of marriage and childbearing: Family formation pathways among immigrants in Switzerland
Julie Lacroix, Júlia Mikolai, and Hill Kulu
This paper examines childbearing in and outside of marriage as a manifestation of the Second Demographic Transition among immigrant populations in Switzerland. Based on full-population register data, we simultaneously analyse fertility and partnership changes by time since migration. Results from a multistate event history model show that most of the differences in family formation patterns between migrant groups and natives are in the sequencing of marriage and first birth among childless unmarried women. Out of wedlock family trajectories prove to be a common experience for European migrants, but a sustainable family pathway only among Swiss, French, and Sub-Saharan African women. Among married women, it is the risk of a third birth that marks the differences between groups; first and second birth rates are relatively similar across migrant groups. Considering the legal constraints imposed by immigration policies and distinguishing transition patterns by time since migration support the disruption hypothesis among EU migrants and the interrelated events hypothesis among non-EU groups. Family size and the partnership context of fertility highlight which family regime prevails in different population subgroups and the role that immigrants play in the Second Demographic Transition and family transformation in Europe.
The working paper can be found here.
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The war, refugees, and the future of Ukraine’s population
Hill Kulu, Sarah Christison, Chia Liu, and Júlia Mikolai
This study analyses the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on the future of Ukraine’s population. We conduct a series of population projections with different assumptions on the proportion of refugees that may return to Ukraine. Our projections show that if past demographic trends continue, Ukraine’s population is projected to decline by one-sixth over the next two decades and become older. These trends are largely driven by past and current demographic developments: continued very low fertility and large-scale emigration at the turn of the century. With war casualties and a large portion of the Ukrainian population seeking safety abroad from the conflict, the country’s population is projected to decline by one-third. The decline would be even larger among the working-age population and children. Russia’s invasion has not only led to immense human and economic costs in Ukraine in the present but also carries long-term demographic repercussions.
The published paper can be found here.
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The divergence of labour force participation upon motherhood among migrant descendants and natives in Germany
Chia Liu and Hill Kulu
This study examines the labor force participation of women with immigrant family backgrounds in Germany, both before and after their first childbirth. We explore how the labor market characteristics of their parents contribute to the ongoing debate about structural versus cultural influences on labor market outcomes among two groups: descendants (native-born with immigrant family backgrounds) and autochthonous individuals (natives, native-born without identifiable immigrant family backgrounds). Using competing risks event history models, we analyze data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to study labor market transitions following education and after the birth of a first child. Our key findings are twofold: 1) Women with Southern European and Polish ancestry are more likely than their non-European counterparts to be engaged in the labor market both before and after having their first child. 2) We observe that women whose parents held higher prestige jobs have higher rates of entering employment and returning to the labor market after their first child. We also find that group disparities in labor market entry diminish after the birth of a first child, indicating that parenthood itself serves as a selective process regardless of an individual’s social and family background. We identify support for the intergenerational transfer of gender roles, especially among those whose parents held lower prestige jobs and came from non-European backgrounds. Interestingly, the effects of the mother’s and father’s occupations show little gender-specific social reproduction. This research significantly enhances our understanding of the integration of ethnic minorities by shedding light on the intricate interplay between social backgrounds and ethnic origins.
The working paper can be found here.
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Family Formation and Employment Changes among Descendants of Immigrants and Natives in France: A Multiprocess Analysis
Isaure Delaporte and Hill Kulu
This paper investigates the association between family formation and the labour market trajectories of immigrants’ descendants over the life course. Using rich data from the Trajectories and Origins survey from France, we apply multilevel event history models to analyse the transitions in and out of employment for both men and women by parity. We account for unobserved co-determinants of childbearing and employment by applying a simultaneous-equations modelling. Our analysis shows that women’s professional careers are negatively associated with childbirth. There are differences across descendant groups. The descendants of Turkish immigrants are more likely to exit employment and less likely to re-enter employment following childbirth than women from other groups. The negative impact of childbearing on employment is overestimated among women due to unobserved selection effects. Among men, the descendants of European immigrants are less likely to exit employment after having a child than other descendant groups. The study demonstrates the negative effect of childbearing on women’s employment, which is pronounced for some minority groups suggesting the need for further policies to help women reconcile work with family life.
The working paper can be found here.
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Heterogeneity or disadvantage in partnership, childbearing, and employment trajectories of the descendants of immigrants in the United Kingdom? A multi-channel sequence analysis of longitudinal data
Júlia Mikolai and Hill Kulu
We investigate how partnership, fertility, and employment changes interact in the lives of immigrant descendants in the UK. Although these life domains are interrelated in individuals’ lives, most studies on migrants and minorities have examined them separately. We use data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, which contains information on individuals’ fertility, partnership, and employment histories and their parents’ country of origin. We apply multi-channel sequence analysis to establish the main types of joint trajectories of partnership, fertility, and employment among natives and the descendants of immigrants. We analyse women and men separately to explore gender differences in the patterns. Our analyses shows, first, that the descendants of European/Western immigrants exhibit family and employment trajectories similar to those of the native British population. Second, the descendants of Caribbean immigrants have diverse partnership and fertility patterns, but their employment outcomes are similar or even better compared to those of native women and men. Third, among the descendants of South Asian immigrants, conservative partnership and family formation patterns are coupled with low labour market attachment, especially among women. We argue that it is not the heterogeneity in partnership and family formation patterns, which poses a challenge, rather that these patterns co-exist with low labour market participation among women. This is likely to have serious long-term implications for the (financial) well-being of second-generation women.
The working paper can be found here.
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Work-migration-life balance: Patterns of immigrant labor market engagement by family status
Chia Liu and Hill Kulu
Labor market participation among immigrants is influenced by gender dynamics, with women showing lower attachment to employment. Family and refugee migrants have lower participation rates compared to those who migrated for work. The selection of migrants based on gender and societal norms further widen gender disparities. Few studies examine the roles of parity, origin, and legal pathways in immigrant gender gaps in employment. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we analyze immigrants’ training and labor market participation by gender and parity with competing-risks event-history models. We view labor market transitions as a multi-state process with multiple entrances and exits. Our findings show that immigrant women are less likely to work full-time than men in general, with the presence of children further reducing full-time employment probabilities, but group heterogeneity exists. Immigrants from Europe, Ex-Yugoslavia, and the Former Soviet Union exhibit higher labor market attachment than those from Turkey. This research contributes to understanding family work dynamics among immigrants in Western Europe and the complexities of labor market engagement.
The working paper can be found here.
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Post-Separation Residential Mobility Among Immigrant-Native Mixed Couples. A Matter of Relative Bargaining Positions Within Households?
Julie Lacroix, Júlia Mikolai and Hill Kulu
This paper investigates post-separation residential outcomes among immigrant, native, and immigrant-native mixed couples. Previous research shows that women are more likely than men to leave the family home upon separation indicating their weaker bargaining position. By distinguishing male and female partners by migrant origin, we consider how gendered power imbalances interact with migration status to create specific bargaining dynamics within households. We use Swiss administrative data and estimate multinomial logistic models for two post-separation residential mobility outcomes: who leaves the family home and to what distance this person relocates. We find that among immigrant-native mixed couples, the immigrant ex-partner (the man or the woman) is significantly more likely to move out of the joint home following a separation. The results suggest that migration status brings in a new dimension of bargaining within separating couples, which affects the gender-specific residential mobility outcomes reported in previous studies. While family migration decisions are generally biased toward the human capital of men, this study shows the advantage of the native partner in immigrant-native couples.
The working paper can be found here.
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The War and the Future of Ukraine’s Population
Hill Kulu, Sarah Christison, Chia Liu and Júlia Mikolai
This study analyses the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 on the future of Ukraine’s population. We conduct a series of population projections with different assumptions on the number of casualties and refugees, and the refugees’ likelihood of return by different political scenarios. Our projections show that if current demographic trends continue, Ukraine’s population is projected to decline by 16% over the next two decades and to become older. These trends are largely driven by past and current demographic developments: continued very low fertility and large-scale emigration at the turn of the century. With war casualties and a large portion of the Ukrainian population seeking safety abroad from the conflict, the country’s population is projected to decline by 33%. The decline would be even larger among the working-age population and children. Russia’s invasion will not only lead to immense human and economic costs in Ukraine in the present, but also carries long-term demographic repercussions.
The working paper can be found here.
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Childbearing Across the Generations of Immigrants and their Descendants in Sweden: A Register-Based Study
Andreas Höhn, Gunnar Andersson, Hill Kulu, and Brad Campbell
Immigrants and their descendants increasingly shape fertility patterns of childbearing in most European countries. While childbearing among first-generation immigrants is well explored, there is a clear lack of knowledge surrounding childbearing among second-generation immigrants. Using Swedish register data, we studied differences in fertility outcomes between first-generation immigrants, second-generation immigrants, and the native Swedish population. We studied men and women separately, distinguished a number of country-of-origin backgrounds and differentiated whether the descendants of immigrants were offspring from endogamous or exogamous relationships (“2.5 Generation”). For most migrants who arrived in Sweden as adults, we found elevated first-birth rates shortly after arrival. First-birth rates were generally lower among descendants of two migrants compared to the native Swedes. First-birth rates among the descendants of one foreign-born parent were very similar to those of native Swedes. Second-birth rates showed little variation among all population subgroups; second-birth rates were generally lower among immigrants and their descendants compared to the native Swedish population. Third-birth rates showed higher levels of polarization, reflecting the established high- and low-fertility backgrounds. Our results indicate that fertility among second-generation immigrants is drifting away from patterns observed among their first-generation counterparts as increasingly resembles patterns of the native Swedish population.
The working paper can be found here.
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Analysing Migrants’ Fertility Behaviour Using Machine Learning Techniques: An Application of Random Survival Forest to French Data
Isaure Delaporte and Hill Kulu
Survival and event history analyses have become widely used techniques in life-course and longitudinal research. Machine learning methods such as survival trees and tree ensembles are a useful alternative to classical methods. This paper aims to illustrate the advantages of random survival forest (RSF). We apply the method to analyse migrant fertility: the probability of having a first, second and third birth among immigrants and their descendants in France. The results of the RSF indicate that even though immigrants have a higher probability of having a birth than natives, highly educated immigrants are much closer to natives in their childbearing patterns than low educated migrants. Our findings illustrate the usefulness of machine leaning techniques in two ways. First, RSF allows us to easily identify the most important predictors of a life event. Second, it allows us to detect and visualize interactions and therefore to identify groups of individuals with different survival probability.
The working paper can be found here.
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Partnership, fertility, and employment trajectories of immigrants in the UK: A three-channel sequence analysis
Júlia Mikolai and Hill Kulu
This study investigates how partnership, fertility, and employment changes interact in the lives of migrants. Although there is a large literature on migrant family and employment, no studies have explored the complex linkages between these life domains of migrants. We use large scale longitudinal data from the UK and apply multi-channel sequence analysis to establish the main types of joint trajectories of partnership, fertility, and employment among immigrants in the UK. We find three types of joint trajectories. Immigrants in the first group (‘single, childless, students’) arrive as and largely remain single and childless and are either in education, or part-time employment when they arrive. The second group (‘partnered, childless, full-time employed’) consists of immigrants who arrived as single and childless but later became partnered and parents. They are largely in full-time employment. Finally, the third group represents family migrants; individuals in this group arrived as married and half of them also already had at least one child at the time of arrival. Five years after migration, almost all of them are married and have become parents. Individuals in this group are either employed or inactive. Our further analysis reveals significant differences in employment patterns between migrant men and women. While most men are in education or in full-time employment after arrival in the UK, a large share of women stay inactive, especially among family migrants.
The working paper can be found here.
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Family trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in three European countries
Hill Kulu, Júlia Mikolai, Isaure Delaporte, Chia Liu, Gunnar Andersson
This study investigates partnership changes and childbearing among immigrant women and men and their descendants born in the UK, France and Germany. While there is a growing literature on immigrant families in Europe, little (if any) research has examined their fertility and partnership histories in tandem. We focus on two critical stages of individuals’ family life course: pathways to family formation (e.g., transitions from singlehood to cohabitation, marriage or a birth outside of a union), and the evolution of individuals’ family lives once they are in a union (e.g., having a(nother) child or experiencing union dissolution). We apply a series of competing-risks Poisson regression models to combined longitudinal data from the three countries. Our analysis shows significant diversity in partnership trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in Europe that in many cases vary more by migration origin than destination. Immigrants from other European countries and their descendants cohabit prior to marriage and their fertility levels in unions are often similar to those of ancestral natives. In contrast, South Asians in the UK and the Turkish population in France and Germany exhibit marriage-centred family behaviour with low separation levels and elevated third-birth rates. Individuals of sub-Saharan African or the Caribbean origin display higher levels of non-marital family transitions. The differences between migrant groups persist when adjusting for educational level and number of siblings. Further, the analyses show that migration background is particularly associated with partnership patterns, whereas the country context in destination does influence patterns in childbearing behaviour. This suggests that cultural-normative as well as structural factors are at play in shaping family trajectories of immigrants and their descendants. We predict some patterns to persist across future migrant generations (e.g., preference for marriage vs cohabitation), whereas others are likely to vanish (e.g., large families).
The working paper can be found here.
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First comes marriage or first comes carriage? Family trajectories for immigrants in Germany
Chia Liu and Hill Kulu
Immigrant families are often unique from those of non-immigrant families in Europe. We look at family decisions from the individual’s point of view by focusing on whether they live together with a partner, have a child, or get married first. The order of these events often provides insights on the family ideology of the individual, an invaluable piece of information in studying the integration or persistent segmentation of those with recent family migration history in the destination society. We use the German Socio-economic Panel (GSOEP) to explore the differences in family formation among those of immigrant and non-immigrant backgrounds in Germany. We focus on the first step into family life, whether it’s through cohabitation, marriage or becoming a parent, for people born between 1970 and 1999. Since immigrants often face circumstances related to migration which can hinder (delayed parenthood due to economic precarity) or promote family processes (hastened marriage with partner to facilitate family migration), we further separate those who migrated as adults (first-generation), as children (1.5-generation) and those who were born in Germany but have at least one parent who is an immigrant (second generation) to pin down differences by origin. Our study reveals that for all groups, cohabitation is growing in importance as the first step into family life, but the changes differ in pace and magnitude for individuals of different migration background and migrant generation. Those with Turkish background, regardless of whether or not they were born in Germany, remain to show high levels of marriage, and low levels of pre-marital childbearing.
The working paper can be found here.
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The intersection of partnership and fertility trajectories of immigrants and their descendants in the United Kingdom: A multilevel multistate event history approach
Júlia Mikolai and Hill Kulu
In the past, natives and immigrants had similar pathways to family formation: they married first and had children within marriage, but immigrants typically had more children. With increasing family diversity, natives and migrants may experience different partnership and fertility trajectories. For example, one group may marry first and then have children within marriage, whereas another group may cohabit first, have a child, marry, and have another child. Yet another group may have children in a relationship but separate thereafter. To study whether immigrants and their descendants in the UK have similar partnership and fertility trajectories to the natives (defined as individuals with two UK-born parents), we use nationally representative longitudinal data. Our results show that there is significant heterogeneity in family trajectories among immigrants and their descendants in the UK. Immigrants and their descendants from geographically close and culturally similar countries (e.g., Europe/West) have similar family trajectories to the natives: many cohabit first and then have children and/or marry. By contrast, those from countries with conservative family behaviours (e.g., South Asia) marry first and then have children. Women from the Caribbean region either tend to have a child outside of a relationship of form a relationship first and then have children. These patterns hold for younger and older generations alike. Our findings highlight persistent differences in the family formation pathways of natives, immigrants, and their descendants in the UK.
The working paper can be found here.
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Family Behavior of Migrants: An Overview
Gunnar Andersson
Family behavior and family dynamics have undergone drastic change during the last half a century. This has produced considerable diversity in family structures across and within countries in Europe. In recent decades, increasing levels of international migration has contributed to this diversity. Many migrants come from contexts with other family systems or socio-demographic development than what prevail in the country where they settle. The family behavior of migrants can be influenced by factors that relate to the contexts of origin as well as destination, through processes of socialization, selection and adaptation. Family behavior may also be influenced directly by intervening factors linked to the process of migration itself. This holds for international as well as for domestic migrants. The current contribution outlines the state of art in terms of family-demographic research on migrants, with attention to conceptual issues, empirical research and scope for future research on the family behavior of migrants in Europe.
The working paper can be found here.
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Fertility and Partnership Changes among Immigrants and their Descendants in France
Isaure Delaporte and Hill Kulu
Do immigrants and their descendants exhibit similar or rather different family patterns than French natives? To answer this question, we use rich longitudinal survey data from France and examine individuals’ fertility and partnership trajectories. Our results show important differences in family behaviour between immigrants, their descendants and French natives (individuals with two French-born parents). Immigrants born in the 1950s-60s, especially from North Africa and Turkey, are more likely than natives to experience an early and longstanding marriage and have relatively large families. Pre-marital cohabitation has become common among individuals born in the 1970s-80s; however, immigrants are still significantly less likely to cohabit prior to marriage than the native-born population. Most immigrants’ descendants exhibit family patterns similar to those of natives. However, there are still significant differences across population groups: the descendants of North African and Turkish immigrants are likely to have relatively large families. Overall, they exhibit more conservative family behaviour than other groups. By contrast, the descendants of Southern Europeans are the closest to the natives in their family behaviour. Our results support increasing similarities between natives and individuals with immigrant family background over generations, however, there is still significant diversity across the population subgroups.
The working paper can be found here.
